Reflections from the 'Hold the door open' project: Inviting older adults across the UK to shape dissemination of health research findings.

BACKGROUND: This project sought to expand patient and public involvement (PPI) practices to the development of research finding dissemination with people aged 55+ years. The project is innovative due to its UK-wide approach and use of PPI to plan better ways to share findings of health research with older adults, extending PPI beyond research project initiation to support dissemination activities. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to understand how to develop effective public engagement activities with older adults to disseminate findings of health research. We hope to promote greater inclusivity and advance our understanding of this demographic. METHODS: This project combined three approaches: (i) an online questionnaire to ask what activities older adults enjoy; (ii) online planning workshops seeking public contributors' input in event planning and (iii) community events to share research findings and raise awareness of PPI. Activities were carried out in Cardiff, Belfast, Glasgow and Tewkesbury. RESULTS: The planning workshops clarified that in-person activities and offering options for activities were important. Based on feedback from our contributors, all our events focused around a talk and question and answer session. Other short activities included light exercise and a writing activity. DISCUSSION: Our multiphase approach helped us develop informative activities that reflected the questionnaire results and the feedback from the workshops, as we tailored our events to each location. A phased approach allowed both researchers and contributors to gradually deepen their understanding. CONCLUSION: Further awareness raising is needed to develop the role older adults currently hold in health research activities. Working closely with existing communities can help broaden diversity. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Thirty-three public contributors helped facilitate this project. Two of these also contributed to this article by writing a reflection of their experiences, one of whom also provided feedback for the article.

Estimates of hepatitis B virus prevalence among general population and key risk groups in EU/EEA/UK countries: a systematic review.

BackgroundThe burden of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) varies across the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA).AimWe aimed to update the 2017 HBV prevalence estimates in EU/EEA countries and the United Kingdom for 2018 to 2021.MethodsWe undertook a systematic review, adding to HBV prevalence estimates from an existing (2005-2017) database. Databases were searched for original English-language research articles including HBV surface antigen prevalence estimates among the general population, pregnant women, first-time blood donors (FTB), men who have sex with men (MSM), migrants and people in prison. Country experts contributed grey literature data. Risk of bias was assessed using a quality assessment framework.FindingsThe update provided 147 new prevalence estimates across the region (updated total n = 579). Median HBV prevalence in the general population was 0.5% and the highest was 3.8% (Greece). Among FTB, the highest prevalence was 0.8% (Lithuania). Estimates among pregnant women were highest in Romania and Italy (5.1%). Among migrants, the highest estimate was 31.7% (Spain). Relative to 2017 estimates, median prevalence among pregnant women decreased by 0.5% (to 0.3%) and increased by 0.9% (to 5.8%) among migrants. Among MSM, the highest estimate was 3.4% (Croatia). Prevalence among people in prison was highest in Greece (8.3%) and the median prevalence increased by 0.6% (to 2.1%).ConclusionsThe HBV prevalence is low in the general population and confined to risk populations in most European countries with some exceptions. Screening and treatment should be targeted to people in prison and migrants.

Estimating hepatitis B virus prevalence among key population groups for European Union and European Economic Area countries and the United Kingdom: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) epidemiology in Europe differs by region and population risk group, and data are often incomplete. We estimated chronic HBV prevalence as measured by surface antigen (HBsAg) among general and key population groups for each country in the European Union, European Economic Area and the United Kingdom (EU/EEA/UK), including where data are currently unavailable. METHODS: We combined data from a 2018 systematic review (updated in 2021), data gathered directly by the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) from EU/EEA countries and the UK and further country-level data. We included data on adults from the general population, pregnant women, first time blood donors (FTBD), men who have sex with men (MSM), prisoners, people who inject drugs (PWID), and migrants from 2001 to 2021, with three exceptions made for pre-2001 estimates. Finite Mixture Models (FMM) and Beta regression were used to predict country and population group HBsAg prevalence. A separate multiplier method was used to estimate HBsAg prevalence among the migrant populations within each country, due to biases in the data available. RESULTS: There were 595 included studies from 31 countries (N = 41,955,969 people): 66 were among the general population (mean prevalence ([Formula: see text]) 1.3% [range: 0.0-7.6%]), 52 among pregnant women ([Formula: see text]1.1% [0.1-5.3%]), 315 among FTBD ([Formula: see text]0.3% [0.0-6.2%]), 20 among MSM ([Formula: see text]1.7% [0.0-11.2%]), 34 among PWID ([Formula: see text]3.9% [0.0-16.9%]), 24 among prisoners ([Formula: see text]2.9% [0.0-10.7%]), and 84 among migrants ([Formula: see text]7.0% [0.2-37.3%]). The FMM grouped countries into 3 classes. We estimated HBsAg prevalence among the general population to be < 1% in 24/31 countries, although it was higher in 7 Eastern/Southern European countries. HBsAg prevalence among each population group was higher in most Eastern/Southern European than Western/Northern European countries, whilst prevalence among PWID and prisoners was estimated at > 1% for most countries. Portugal had the highest estimated prevalence of HBsAg among migrants (5.0%), with the other highest prevalences mostly seen in Southern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated HBV prevalence for each population group within each EU/EAA country and the UK, with general population HBV prevalence to be < 1% in most countries. Further evidence is required on the HBsAg prevalence of high-risk populations for future evidence synthesis.

Maternal Childhood Maltreatment, Internal Working Models, and Perinatal Substance Use: Is There a Role for Hyperkatifeia? A Systematic Review.

The parent-infant relationship is critical for socioemotional development and is adversely impacted by perinatal substance use. This systematic review posits that the mechanisms underlying these risks to mother-infant relationships center on 3 primary processes: (1) mothers' childhood maltreatment experiences; (2) attachment styles and consequent internal working models of interpersonal relationships; and (3) perinatal substance use. Further, the review considers the role of hyperkatifeia, or hypersensitivity to negative affect which occurs when people with substance use disorders are not using substances, and which drives the negative reinforcement in addiction. The authors performed a systematic review of articles (published 2000-2022) related to these constructs and their impact on mother-infant relationships and offspring outcomes, including original clinical research articles addressing relationships between these constructs, and excluding case studies, reviews, non-human animal studies, intervention studies, studies with fewer than 30% female-sex participants, clinical guidelines, studies limited to obstetric outcomes, mechanistic/biological studies, and studies with methodological issues precluding interpretation. Overall 1844 articles were screened, 377 were selected for full text review, and data were extracted from 157 articles. Results revealed strong relationships between mothers' childhood maltreatment experiences, less optimal internal working models, and increased risk for perinatal substance use, and importantly, all of these predictors interacted with hyperkatifeia and exerted a marked impact on mother-infant relationships with less data available on offspring outcomes. These data strongly support the need for future studies addressing the additive impact of maternal childhood maltreatment experiences, suboptimal internal working models, and perinatal substance use, with hyperkatifeia as a potential moderator, and their interacting effects on mother-infant socioemotional outcomes.

Modelling the impact of COVID-19 and routine MenACWY vaccination on meningococcal carriage and disease in the UK.

Country-wide social distancing and suspension of non-emergency medical care due to the COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly have affected public health in multiple ways. While non-pharmaceutical interventions are expected to reduce the transmission of several infectious diseases, severe disruptions to healthcare systems have hampered diagnosis, treatment, and routine vaccination. We examined the effect of this disruption on meningococcal disease and vaccination in the UK. By adapting an existing mathematical model for meningococcal carriage, we addressed the following questions: What is the predicted impact of the existing MenACWY adolescent vaccination programme? What effect might social distancing and reduced vaccine uptake both have on future epidemiology? Will catch-up vaccination campaigns be necessary? Our model indicated that the MenACWY vaccine programme was generating substantial indirect protection and suppressing transmission by 2020. COVID-19 social distancing is expected to have accelerated this decline, causing significant long-lasting reductions in both carriage prevalence of meningococcal A/C/W/Y strains and incidence of invasive meningococcal disease. In all scenarios modelled, pandemic social mixing effects outweighed potential reductions in vaccine uptake, causing an overall decline in carriage prevalence from 2020 for at least 5 years. Model outputs show strong consistency with recently published case data for England.

Views and Perceptions of People Aged 55+ on the Vaccination Programme for Older Adults in the UK: A Qualitative Study.

Vaccination reduces the risks related to infectious disease, especially among more vulnerable groups, such as older adults. The vaccines available to older adults in the UK through the government-funded programme currently include influenza, pneumococcal, shingles and COVID-19 vaccines. The purpose of the programme is disease prevention and improving wellbeing among the ageing population. Yet, the target population's views of the programme remain unknown. This paper aims to increase the understanding of older adults' perceptions of the vaccination programme available in the UK. A total of 13 online focus groups (56 informants) were carried out for this qualitative study. The findings indicate that getting vaccinated involves personal decision-making processes, which are influenced by previous experiences and interpersonal interactions. Factors related to the wider community and culture are less prominent in explaining vaccination decisions. However, opportunistic vaccination offers, a lack of information and a lack of opportunities to discuss vaccines, especially with healthcare professionals, are prominent factors. The study provides in-depth data about the rationale behind older adults' vaccination decisions in the UK. We recommend that the provision of information and opportunities to discuss vaccines and infectious disease be improved to enable older adults' to make better informed decisions regarding the vaccines available to them.

The potential public health impact of adolescent 4CMenB vaccination on Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection in England: a modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Diagnoses of gonorrhoea in England rose by 26% between 2018 and 2019. Recent evidence that a vaccine against meningococcal B disease currently offered to infants in the UK (4CMenB) could additionally protect (with 31% efficacy) against gonorrhoea has led to renewed hope for a vaccine. A Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial of 4CMenB vaccination against gonorrhoea in adults is currently underway. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the potential public health impact of adolescent gonorrhoea vaccination in England, considering different implementation strategies. METHODS: We developed a deterministic transmission-dynamic model of gonorrhoea infection among heterosexual 13-64-year-olds stratified by age, sex and sexual activity. We explored the impact of a National Immunisation Programme (NIP) among 14-year-olds for a vaccine with 31% efficacy, 6 years' duration of protection, and 85% uptake. We also explored how impact might change for varying efficacy (20-50%) and uptake (75-95%), the addition of a catch-up programme, the use of boosters, and varying duration of protection. RESULTS: An NIP against gonorrhoea could lead to 50,000 (95% credible interval, CrI 31,000-80,000) and 849,000 (95%CrI 476,000-1,568,000) gonorrhoea infections being averted over 10 and 70 years, respectively, in England, for a vaccine with 31% efficacy and 85% uptake. This is equivalent to 25% (95%CrI 17-33%) of heterosexual infections being averted over 70 years. Vaccine impact is predicted to increase over time and be greatest among 13-18-year-olds (39% of infections 95%CrI 31-49% averted) over 70 years. Varying vaccine efficacy and duration of protection had a noticeable effect on impact. Catch-up and booster vaccination increased the short- and long-term impact, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A partially-effective vaccine against gonorrhoea infection, delivered to 14-year-olds alongside the MenACWY vaccine, could have an important population impact on gonorrhoea. Catch-up and booster vaccination could be considered alongside cohort vaccination to increase impact.

Role of Innate Immune and Inflammatory Responses in the Development of Secondary Diabetic Complications.

Increased hyperglycemia due to uncontrolled diabetes is the major cause of secondary diabetic complications such as retinopathy, neuropathy, nephropathy, and cardiovascular diseases. Although it is well known that increased oxidative stress, activation of the polyol pathway, protein kinase C and increased generation of advanced glycation end products could contribute to the development of diabetic complications, recent studies implicated the role of innate immunity and its related inflammatory responses in the pathophysiology of secondary diabetic complications. Increased activation of oxidative stress signaling could regulate NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated innate immune responses as well as NF-κB signalosome-mediated pro-inflammatory responses. This review article focused on the pathogenic role of innate immune and inflammatory responses in the progression of hyperglycemia-induced secondary diabetic complications. Specifically, we discussed in depth how deregulated innate immune and inflammatory responses could lead to an aggravated release of cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors resulting in the development of various secondary complications of diabetes.

Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines.

Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the "sources of uncertainty" framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.

A mixed methods analysis of participation in a social contact survey.

BACKGROUND: Social contact survey data forms a core component of modern epidemic models: however, there has been little assessment of the potential biases in such data. METHODS: We conducted focus groups with university students who had (n = 13) and had never (n = 14) completed a social contact survey during the COVID-19 pandemic. Qualitative findings were explored quantitatively by analysing participation data. RESULTS: The opportunity to contribute to COVID-19 research, to be heard and feel useful were frequently reported motivators for participating in the contact survey. Reductions in survey engagement following lifting of COVID-19 restrictions may have occurred because the research was perceived to be less critical and/or because the participants were busier and had more contacts. Having a high number of contacts to report, uncertainty around how to report each contact, and concerns around confidentiality were identified as factors leading to inaccurate reporting. Focus groups participants thought that financial incentives or provision of study results would encourage participation. CONCLUSIONS: Incentives could improve engagement with social contact surveys. Qualitative research can inform the format, timing, and wording of surveys to optimise completion and accuracy.

Self-Regulation Mediates Therapeutic Horseback Riding Social Functioning Outcomes in Youth With Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Emerging evidence suggests therapeutic horseback riding improves self-regulation behaviors, social functioning, and language in youth with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). It has been theorized that interacting with horses is calming for youth with ASD, which may influence social and language outcomes. The current study is an exploratory secondary mediation analysis of a previously published randomized controlled trial of therapeutic horseback riding for youth with ASD. We hypothesized that self-regulation would mediate therapeutic horseback riding's effect on social and language outcomes in youth with ASD. Results indicate that self-regulation mediates therapeutic horseback riding's effect on social, but not language outcomes. This paper provides support for the hypothesis that interacting with horses may have a calming effect that serves as a platform for improving social outcomes in youth with autism.

Impact of meningococcal ACWY conjugate vaccines on pharyngeal carriage in adolescents: evidence for herd protection from the UK MenACWY programme.

OBJECTIVE: Serogroup W and Y invasive meningococcal disease increased globally from 2000 onwards. Responding to a rapid increase in serogroup W clonal complex 11 (W:cc11) invasive meningococcal disease, the UK replaced an adolescent booster dose of meningococcal C conjugate vaccine with quadrivalent MenACWY conjugate vaccine in 2015. By 2018, the vaccine coverage in the eligible school cohorts aged 14 to 19 years was 84%. We assessed the impact of the MenACWY vaccination programme on meningococcal carriage. METHODS: An observational study of culture-defined oropharyngeal meningococcal carriage prevalence before and after the start of the MenACWY vaccination programme in UK school students, aged 15 to 19 years, using two cross-sectional studies: 2014 to 2015 "UKMenCar4" and 2018 "Be on the TEAM" (ISRCTN75858406). RESULTS: A total of 10 625 participants preimplementation and 13 438 postimplementation were included. Carriage of genogroups C, W, and Y (combined) decreased from 2.03 to 0.71% (OR 0.34 [95% CI 0.27-0.44], p < 0.001). Carriage of genogroup B meningococci did not change (1.26% vs 1.23% [95% CI 0.77-1.22], p = 0.80) and genogroup C remained rare (n = 7/10 625 vs 17/13 438, p = 0.135). The proportion of serogroup positive isolates (i.e. those expressing capsule) decreased for genogroup W by 53.8% (95% CI -5.0 - 79.8, p = 0.016) and for genogroup Y by 30.1% (95% CI 8.946·3, p = 0.0025). DISCUSSION: The UK MenACWY vaccination programme reduced carriage acquisition of genogroup and serogroup Y and W meningococci and sustained low levels of genogroup C carriage. These data support the use of quadrivalent MenACWY conjugate vaccine for indirect (herd) protection.

Prognostic value of upper respiratory tract microbes in children presenting to primary care with respiratory infections: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The association between upper respiratory tract microbial positivity and illness prognosis in children is unclear. This impedes clinical decision-making and means the utility of upper respiratory tract microbial point-of-care tests remains unknown. We investigated for relationships between pharyngeal microbes and symptom severity in children with suspected respiratory tract infection (RTI). METHODS: Baseline characteristics and pharyngeal swabs were collected from 2,296 children presenting to 58 general practices in Bristol, UK with acute cough and suspected RTI between 2011-2013. Post-consultation, parents recorded the severity of six RTI symptoms on a 0-6 scale daily for ≤28 days. We used multivariable hurdle regression, adjusting for clinical characteristics, antibiotics and other microbes, to investigate associations between respiratory microbes and mean symptom severity on days 2-4 post-presentation. RESULTS: Overall, 1,317 (57%) children with complete baseline, microbiological and symptom data were included. Baseline characteristics were similar in included participants and those lacking microbiological data. At least one virus was detected in 869 (66%) children, and at least one bacterium in 783 (60%). Compared to children with no virus detected (mean symptom severity score 1.52), adjusted mean symptom severity was 0.26 points higher in those testing positive for at least one virus (95% CI 0.15 to 0.38, p<0.001); and was also higher in those with detected Influenza B (0.44, 0.15 to 0.72, p = 0.003); RSV (0.41, 0.20 to 0.60, p<0.001); and Influenza A (0.25, -0.01 to 0.51, p = 0.059). Children positive for Enterovirus had a lower adjusted mean symptom severity (-0.24, -0.43 to -0.05, p = 0.013). Children with detected Bordetella pertussis (0.40, 0.00 to 0.79, p = 0.049) and those with detected Moraxella catarrhalis (-0.76, -1.06 to -0.45, p<0.001) respectively had higher and lower mean symptom severity compared to children without these bacteria. CONCLUSIONS: There is a potential role for upper respiratory tract microbiological point-of-care tests in determining the prognosis of childhood RTIs.

Reassessing the evidence for universal school-age BCG vaccination in England and Wales: re-evaluating and updating a modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: In 2005, England and Wales switched from universal BCG vaccination against tuberculosis (TB) disease for school-age children to targeted vaccination of neonates. We aimed to recreate and re-evaluate a previously published model, the results of which informed this policy change. DESIGN: We recreated an approach for estimating the impact of ending the BCG schools scheme, correcting a methodological flaw in the model, updating the model with parameter uncertainty and improving parameter estimates where possible. We investigated scenarios for the assumed annual decrease in TB incidence rates considered by the UK's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation and explored alternative scenarios using notification data. SETTING: England and Wales. OUTCOME MEASURES: The number of vaccines needed to prevent a single notification and the average annual additional notifications caused by ending the policy change. RESULTS: The previously published model was found to contain a methodological flaw and to be spuriously precise. It greatly underestimated the impact of ending school-age vaccination compared with our updated, corrected model. The updated model produced predictions with wide CIs when parameter uncertainty was included. Model estimates based on an assumption of an annual decrease in TB incidence rates of 1.9% were closest to those estimated using notification data. Using this assumption, we estimate that 1600 (2.5; 97.5% quantiles: 1300, 2000) vaccines would have been required to prevent a single notification in 2004. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of ending the BCG schools scheme was found to be greater than previously thought when notification data were used. Our results highlight the importance of independent evaluations of modelling evidence, including uncertainty, and evaluating multiple scenarios when forecasting the impact of changes in vaccination policy.

High COVID-19 transmission potential associated with re-opening universities can be mitigated with layered interventions.

Controlling COVID-19 transmission in universities poses challenges due to the complex social networks and potential for asymptomatic spread. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on realistic mixing patterns and evaluated alternative mitigation strategies. We predict, for plausible model parameters, that if asymptomatic cases are half as infectious as symptomatic cases, then 15% (98% Prediction Interval: 6-35%) of students could be infected during the first term without additional control measures. First year students are the main drivers of transmission with the highest infection rates, largely due to communal residences. In isolation, reducing face-to-face teaching is the most effective intervention considered, however layering multiple interventions could reduce infection rates by 75%. Fortnightly or more frequent mass testing is required to impact transmission and was not the most effective option considered. Our findings suggest that additional outbreak control measures should be considered for university settings.

Contacts and behaviours of university students during the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of the 2020/2021 academic year.

University students have unique living, learning and social arrangements which may have implications for infectious disease transmission. To address this data gap, we created CONQUEST (COroNavirus QUESTionnaire), a longitudinal online survey of contacts, behaviour, and COVID-19 symptoms for University of Bristol (UoB) staff/students. Here, we analyse results from 740 students providing 1261 unique records from the start of the 2020/2021 academic year (14/09/2020-01/11/2020), where COVID-19 outbreaks led to the self-isolation of all students in some halls of residences. Although most students reported lower daily contacts than in pre-COVID-19 studies, there was heterogeneity, with some reporting many (median = 2, mean = 6.1, standard deviation = 15.0; 8% had ≥ 20 contacts). Around 40% of students' contacts were with individuals external to the university, indicating potential for transmission to non-students/staff. Only 61% of those reporting cardinal symptoms in the past week self-isolated, although 99% with a positive COVID-19 test during the 2 weeks before survey completion had self-isolated within the last week. Some students who self-isolated had many contacts (mean = 4.3, standard deviation = 10.6). Our results provide context to the COVID-19 outbreaks seen in universities and are available for modelling future outbreaks and informing policy.

Opportunities and challenges for machine learning in weather and climate modelling: hard, medium and soft AI.

In September 2019, a workshop was held to highlight the growing area of applying machine learning techniques to improve weather and climate prediction. In this introductory piece, we outline the motivations, opportunities and challenges ahead in this exciting avenue of research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Machine learning for weather and climate modelling'.

Pediatric hospital in the home: clinical outcomes for treatment of a cystic fibrosis respiratory exacerbation.

Background: Children with cystic fibrosis (CF) have recurrent lung infections and these exacerbation periods have conventionally been treated in hospital. Hospital in the Home (HITH) programs have recently been introduced but equivalence of care has not previously been established.Objectives: To determine if standardization of treatment (application and frequency) for children with CF during a pulmonary exacerbation would produce equivocal clinical outcomes (lung function and weight), regardless of whether treatment was received in hospital or HITH.Design and Participants: A retrospective audit was conducted on electronic medical records from 39 children with CF (6-17 years).Main Outcome measures: Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), weight and length of stay (LOS) were compared between participants treated either in hospital or under the provision of HITH.Results: Care provided by HITH was found to be equivalent to hospital-based care (mean difference; 95% CI) for: FEV1 (0.067; -0.104, 0.238); FVC (0.051; -0.102, 0.204); weight (0.718; -0.251, 1.687); and LOS (-0.781, -2.505, 0.943). All investigated clinical measurements significantly improved (FEV1 p = .001; FVC p < .001; and weight p < .001) from admission to discharge for both hospital and HITH participants.Conclusions: HITH appears comparable to hospital provision of care for children with CF during a pulmonary exacerbation in terms of post-treatment outcomes (FEV1, FVC, weight, and LOS).